My Predictions for the 97th Academy Awards

By: Steve Pulaski

This is as tardy as I’ve been on publishing my Oscars predictions since I started making them all the way back in 2009. My life has been a whirlwind since December, when my girlfriend, Catherine, and I moved (within Dubuque, where I’ve been located since 2022). A busy work schedule, an unpredictable movie schedule, and a stray of other factors played a role. All’s been well, for the most part, just hectic.

Moreover, the Oscars just feel like an afterthought this year. I’ve lamented about this before, but after what was a solid ceremony with two heavy-hitting crowdpleasers in Barbie and Oppenheimer last year, perhaps a comedown was to be expected. Then there’s the fact that the idea of “awards season,” which used to occur from September – early January at multiplexes around the country just doesn’t feel like much of a thing anymore with the advent of streaming.

Movies are coming at us from everywhere. In theaters and on one of a dozen streaming services, rendering the Oscars wildly unpredictable. I’m not as adequately prepared for this year as I’ve been in years past. I’ve only seen six of the ten Best Picture nominees, and that doesn’t include the universally acclaimed The Brutalist. After missing that one in theaters, I’m saving it for a quiet, contemplative Sunday.

That being said, handicapping and predicting the Oscars is something I still enjoy. Oscar Sunday is still the best Sunday of the year, followed closely by the Super Bowl.

Per usual, I have my predictions. Feel free to follow along or use them to win your Oscar pool. And, if you so happen to care, I’ll be recapping the show on Y105 from 6-10am CST on Monday, March 3rd. For bragging purposes, here are my records for predicting the Academy Awards over the last six years:

90th Academy Awards – 18-6
91st Academy Awards – 11-13
92nd Academy Awards – 17-7
93rd Academy Awards – 15-8
94th Academy Awards – 19-4
95th Academy Awards – 17-6
96th Academy Awards – 14-9

Without further adieu, here is my annual attempt at a 23-0 record at handicapping the Oscars!

Predicted winners will be in bold.

Best picture:

• “Anora” (Neon)
• “The Brutalist” (A24)
• “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight)
• “Conclave” (Focus)
• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
• “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
• “I’m Still Here” (Sony Classics)
• “Nickel Boys” (Amazon/MGM)
• “The Substance” (Mubi)
• “Wicked” (Universal)

This is as wide open as any Best Picture race has been in recent memory. About a week and a half ago, I settled on Anora not only as my personal favorite of the nominees, but also my predicted winner. It’s probably the most universally appealing of all the nominees, sure, yet it’s also just a marvelous amalgam of screwball comedy and tragedy. I laughed loudly. I mourned quietly. It’s the kind of movie that sneaks up on you with the power of its interpersonal character dynamics, and Sean Baker is one of the great humanists of his generation. That’s a Best Picture in my eyes.

My “bad joke” of the last two weeks is questioning whether the declining health of Pope Francis (who I really like, for the record) ups Conclave‘s odds for the top award. I think it has a solid chance, and I also believe The Brutalist or the controversial and divisive Emilia Pérez is in play. I truly don’t have a strong feel for the Best Picture winner this year, but I’ve gotten the last two right, so I’m hoping, for the first time since Parasite, the best picture wins Best Picture.

Best director:

• Sean Baker, “Anora”
• Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
• James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
• Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
• Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”

Oddsmakers are heavily favoring Sean Baker for Best Director. That said, I do think there’s something to be said for ambitious, grand-scale filmmaking in a day and age where a lot of great directors are going the television route. I am going with Brady Corbet for the upset here.

Best actress:

• Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
• Karla Sofia Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
• Mikey Madison, “Anora”
• Demi Moore, “The Substance”
• Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”

Demi Moore accepting her award for Best Actress on Sunday, March 1st will be an emotionally moving moment for an actress who, like so many women, was chewed up and spit out by Hollywood as she got older. Toby Keith’s “How Do You Like Me Now?!” should be her walk-up song.

Best actor:

• Adrian Brody, “The Brutalist”
• Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
• Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
• Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
• Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”

Timothée Chalamet looked to be the chalk when the Oscar nominations were first announced. Oddsmakers have started favoring Adrian Brody lately. I’ve predicted Chalamet winning from day one, on the radio and when prompted, so it’d be foolhardy for me to renege now.

Best supporting actress:

• Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
• Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
• Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
• Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
• Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”

Best Supporting Actress is such a stacked category this year, maybe the most decorated of the entire slate of nominees. Isabella Rossellini is the sneaky emotional soul of Conclave. Ariana Grande won me over by the end of Wicked, and Monica Barbaro has some strong individual beats in A Complete Unknown. Although unseen by me, Zoe Saldaña’s turn in Emilia Pérez has been the one point of agreement in a film that ostensibly seems engineered to piss everyone but Oscar voters off.

Best supporting actor:

• Yura Borisov, “Anora”
• Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
• Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
• Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
• Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”

Yura Borisov would be my choice here because similar to Rossellini, he is the emotional soul in his respective film. Borisov is quietly reactive, and when he speaks, he draws you in with a pensive directness. A true find of an actor I hope doesn’t fall completely out of the public eye ala someone like Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips). Jeremy Strong was also the best part in the solid but unmemorable Apprentice.

Best original screenplay:

• “Anora,” Sean Baker
• “The Brutalist,” Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold
• “A Real Pain,” Jesse Eisenberg
• “September 5,” Tim Fehlbaum & Moritz Binder
• “The Substance,” Coralie Fargeat

Best adapted screenplay:

• “A Complete Unknown,” Jay Cocks & James Mangold
• “Conclave,” Peter Straughan
• “Emilia Pérez,” Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain & Nicolas Livecchi
• “Nickel Boys,” RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
• “Sing Sing,” Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin & John “Divine G” Whitfield

Best international feature:

• “I’m Still Here,” Walter Salles (Brazil)
• “The Girl with the Needle,” Magnus von Horn (Denmark)
• “Emilia Pérez,” Jacques Audiard (France)
• “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” Mohammad Rasoulof (Germany)
• “Flow,” Miguel Gomes (Latvia)

Best documentary feature:

• “Black Box Diaries,” Shiori Itō (MTV)
• “No Other Land,” Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Yuval Abraham & Rachel Szor (No distributor)
• “Porcelain War,” Brendan Bellomo & Slava Leontyev (Picturehouse)
• “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat,” Johan Grimonprez (Kino Lorber)
• “Sugarcane,” Julian Brave NoiseCat & Emily Kassie (Nat Geo)

Best animated feature:

• “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
• “Inside Out 2” (Disney/Pixar)
• “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
• “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Aardman/Netflix)
• “The Wild Robot” (Dreamworks/Universal)

Piece by Piece getting snubbed is just more proof that the Academy doesn’t give a shit about block people.

Best cinematography:

• “The Brutalist,” Lol Crawley
• “Dune: Part Two,” Greig Fraser
• “Emilia Pérez,” Paul Guillaume
• “Maria,” Edward Lachman
• “Nosferatu,” Jarin Blaschke

Best costume design:

• “A Complete Unknown,” Arianne Phillips
• “Conclave,” Lisy Christl
• “Gladiator II,” Janty Yates
• “Nosferatu,” Linda Muir
• “Wicked,” Paul Tazewell

Best film editing:

• “Anora,” Sean Baker
• “The Brutalist,” Dávid Jancsó
• “Conclave,” Nick Emerson
• “Emilia Pérez,” Juliette Welfling
• “Wicked,” Myron Kerstein

Best production design:

• “The Brutalist,” Judy Becker
• “Conclave,” Suzie Davies
• “Dune: Part Two,” Patrice Vermette
• “Nosferatu,” Craig Lathrop
• “Wicked,” Nathan Crowley

Best original score:

• “The Brutalist,” Daniel Blumberg
• “Conclave,” Volker Bertelmann
• “Emilia Pérez,” Clément Ducol & Camille
• “Wicked,” John Powell & Stephen Schwartz
• “The Wild Robot,” Kris Bowers

Best original song:

• “Never Too Late,” “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Elton John & Brandi Carlile)
• “El Mal,” “Emilia Pérez” (Clement Ducol, Camille & Jacques Audiard)
• “Mi Camino,” “Emilia Pérez” (Clement Ducol & Camille)
• “Like a Bird,” “Sing Sing” (Adrian Quesada & Abraham Alexander)
• “The Journey,” “The Six Triple Eight” (Diane Warren)

Best sound:

• “A Complete Unknown”
• “Dune: Part Two”
• “Emilia Pérez”
• “Wicked”
• “The Wild Robot”

Best visual effects:

• “Alien: Romulus”
• “Better Man”
• “Dune: Part Two”
• “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
• “Wicked”

Best makeup and hairstyling:

• “A Different Man”
• “Emilia Pérez”
• “Nosferatu”
• “The Substance”
• “Wicked”

Best documentary short:

• “Death by Numbers”
• “I Am Ready, Warden”
• “Incident”
• “Instruments of a Beating Heart”
• “The Only Girl in the Orchestra”

Best animated short:

• “Beautiful Men”
• “In the Shadow of the Cypress”
• “Magic Candies”
• “Wander to Wonder”
• “Yuck!”

Best live-action short:

• “A Lien”
• “Anuja”
• “I’m Not a Robot”
• “The Last Ranger”
• “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”

For the first time in a blue moon, I will not be drinking Chartreuse for the Oscars. Instead, I’ll be sipping Bulleit Bourbon neat, with Catherine by my side, indulging in a lavish evening. Here’s to a memorable Sunday.